Connecting clinical and actuarial prediction with rule-based methods.
نویسندگان
چکیده
Meta-analyses comparing the accuracy of clinical versus actuarial prediction have shown actuarial methods to outperform clinical methods, on average. However, actuarial methods are still not widely used in clinical practice, and there has been a call for the development of actuarial prediction methods for clinical practice. We argue that rule-based methods may be more useful than the linear main effect models usually employed in prediction studies, from a data and decision analytic as well as a practical perspective. In addition, decision rules derived with rule-based methods can be represented as fast and frugal trees, which, unlike main effects models, can be used in a sequential fashion, reducing the number of cues that have to be evaluated before making a prediction. We illustrate the usability of rule-based methods by applying RuleFit, an algorithm for deriving decision rules for classification and regression problems, to a dataset on prediction of the course of depressive and anxiety disorders from Penninx et al. (2011). The RuleFit algorithm provided a model consisting of 2 simple decision rules, requiring evaluation of only 2 to 4 cues. Predictive accuracy of the 2-rule model was very similar to that of a logistic regression model incorporating 20 predictor variables, originally applied to the dataset. In addition, the 2-rule model required, on average, evaluation of only 3 cues. Therefore, the RuleFit algorithm appears to be a promising method for creating decision tools that are less time consuming and easier to apply in psychological practice, and with accuracy comparable to traditional actuarial methods.
منابع مشابه
S3PSO: Students’ Performance Prediction Based on Particle Swarm Optimization
Nowadays, new methods are required to take advantage of the rich and extensive gold mine of data given the vast content of data particularly created by educational systems. Data mining algorithms have been used in educational systems especially e-learning systems due to the broad usage of these systems. Providing a model to predict final student results in educational course is a reason for usi...
متن کاملStock price prediction using the Chaid rule-based algorithm and particle swarm optimization (pso)
Stock prices in each industry are one of the major issues in the stock market. Given the increasing number of shareholders in the stock market and their attention to the price of different stocks in transactions, the prediction of the stock price trend has become significant. Many people use the share price movement process when com-paring different stocks while investing, and also want to pred...
متن کاملInvestigating the missing data effect on credit scoring rule based models: The case of an Iranian bank
Credit risk management is a process in which banks estimate probability of default (PD) for each loan applicant. Data sets of previous loan applicants are built by gathering their data, and these internal data sets are usually completed using external credit bureau’s data and finally used for estimating PD in banks. There is also a continuous interest for bank to use rule based classifiers to b...
متن کاملPrediction of Clinically Important Traumatic Brain Injury in Pediatric Minor Head Trauma; proposing Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury (PTBI) Prognostic Rule
Background: The present study assesses independent predictors of clinically important traumatic brain injury (ciTBI) in order to design a prognostic rule for identification of high risk children with mild head injury. Materials and Methods: In a retrospective cross-sectional study, 3,199 children with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) brought to emergency ward of three hospitals in Tehran, Iran...
متن کاملThe Inaccuracy of Clinical and Actuarial Predictions of Dangerous Behavior
The prediction of dangerous and/or violent behavior is important to the conduct of the United States criminal justice system when it makes decisions about restrictions of personal freedom such as preventive detention, forensic commitment, parole, and in some states such as Texas, when to permit an execution to proceed of an individual found guilty of a capital crime. This article discusses the ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Psychological assessment
دوره 27 2 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2015